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Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. is projected to rise to $12.69 by 2027, a +5% move from its current price of $12.12. NCDL is currently trading below its 50-day average (a bearish sign). Technical indicators currently lean strong sell.
A data-driven summary — not financial advice. See the full breakdown below.
Live market data via Yahoo Finance · updated 8/1/2026
| Period | Min | Prediction | Max | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2 | $11.95 | $12.12 | $12.29 | +0.01% |
| Aug 3 | $11.89 | $12.12 | $12.36 | +0.01% |
| Aug 4 | $11.84 | $12.12 | $12.42 | +0.02% |
| Aug 5 | $11.79 | $12.12 | $12.46 | +0.03% |
| Aug 6 | $11.75 | $12.12 | $12.50 | +0.03% |
| Aug 7 | $11.72 | $12.12 | $12.54 | +0.04% |
| Aug 8 | $11.69 | $12.13 | $12.58 | +0.04% |
| Period | Min | Prediction | Max | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | $11.69 | $12.13 | $12.58 | +0.04% |
| Week 2 | $11.52 | $12.13 | $12.78 | +0.09% |
| Week 3 | $11.39 | $12.14 | $12.93 | +0.13% |
| Week 4 | $11.29 | $12.14 | $13.06 | +0.18% |
| Week 5 | $11.19 | $12.15 | $13.18 | +0.22% |
| Week 6 | $11.11 | $12.15 | $13.29 | +0.27% |
| Week 7 | $11.04 | $12.16 | $13.39 | +0.31% |
Short-term targets derived from the forecast trend and recent volatility. Highly uncertain — not financial advice.
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) is a Financial Services company organized as a business development company. It was formed on March 13, 2018, as a limited liability company under the laws of the State of Delaware and was converted into a Maryland corporation on June 18, 2019 prior to the commencement of operations.
The Company is a closed-end, externally managed, non-diversified management investment company that has elected to be regulated as a business development company under the Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended. The investment objective is to generate attractive risk adjusted returns primarily through current income by investing primarily in senior secured loans to private equity owned U.S. middle market companies, which the Company defines as companies with approximately $10.0 million to $100.0 million of EBITDA.
The Company focuses on privately originated debt to performing U.S. middle market companies, with a portfolio expected to comprise primarily of first-lien senior secured debt and unitranche loans, and opportunistically invest in junior capital opportunities such as second-lien loans, subordinated debt, last-out positions in unitranche loans and equity-related securities.
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. trades under the symbol NCDL in the Financial Services sector. The current price is $12.19 and the market cap is $602.03M, with a rank of 2707.
The forecast shows a bullish long term path, with 2026 averaging $12.19 and rising through the late 2020s and into the 2030s and beyond. By 2030 the average is projected to $19.23, with a 57.8 ROI, and by 2040 the average is $39.65 with a 225.3 ROI, continuing to 2050 with an average of $83.23 and a 582.8 ROI. The 2026 forecast also shows a min of $12.08, an avg of $12.19, a max of $15.12, and a neutral sentiment.
A major floor 5.3% below — a decisive break under it would weaken the trend.
Price is testing support right now (0.3% away) — a key level to hold.
The nearest ceiling, 7.3% above — a clean break opens room to run.
A major ceiling 22.3% above — clearing it would confirm fresh momentum.
Key NCDL support and resistance from recent price action — levels where the trend has historically paused or reversed. Percentages are the distance from the current price.
A snapshot of NCDL market posture derived from its technical indicators and recent volatility. Higher trend and alignment lean bullish; higher risk means larger swings.
Technical Analysis
Indicators computed on daily closing prices.
| Period | SMA | Action | EMA | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MA 5 | $12.35 | Sell | $12.27 | Sell |
| MA 10 | $12.37 | Sell | $12.37 | Sell |
| MA 20 | $12.56 | Sell | $12.48 | Sell |
| MA 50 | $12.65 | Sell | $12.72 | Sell |
| MA 100 | $13.13 | Sell | $13.04 | Sell |
| MA 200 | $13.54 | Sell | $13.62 | Sell |
| Name | Value | Action |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 40.39 | Neutral |
| Stoch RSI (14) | 18.20 | Buy |
| CCI (20) | -141.10 | Sell |
| Williams %R (14) | -98.86 | Info |
| MACD (12,26,9) | -0.04 | Sell |
| ROC (12) | -5.24 | Sell |
| Bollinger %B (20,2) | 0.07 | Neutral |
| Stochastic %K (14) | 1.14 | Buy |
| TRIX (15) | -0.09 | Sell |
| Awesome (5,34) | -0.18 | Sell |
| Ultimate (7,14,28) | 38.59 | Neutral |
| Momentum (10) | -0.57 | Sell |
| Aroon Osc (25) | -68.00 | Sell |
| Hull MA (9) | 12.28 | Sell |
| ADX (14) | 11.85 | Neutral |
| ATR (14) | 0.17 | Info |
The near term shows a bearish technical tone. The RSI14 is 40, with the 50-day simple moving average at $12.67 and the 200-day simple moving average at $13.54. Support is seen at $12.08 and resistance at $13.00.
The 30-day price range runs from $11.10 to $13.39. These signals imply limited upside in the very near term, with a lower probability of breaking above the $13.00 resistance without catalysts.
| Year | Min | Avg | Max | ROI | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $12.08 | $12.12 | $15.02 | 0% | Neutral | |
| $10.40 | $12.69 | $16.17 | +5% | Neutral | |
| $12.29 | $15.28 | $20.00 | +26% | Bullish | |
| $14.25 | $17.99 | $24.06 | +48% | Bullish | |
| $14.73 | $18.84 | $25.66 | +55% | Bullish | |
| $16.43 | $21.27 | $29.43 | +76% | Bullish | |
| $16.75 | $21.94 | $30.79 | +81% | Bullish | |
| $16.61 | $21.98 | $31.24 | +81% | Bullish | |
| $18.36 | $24.54 | $35.31 | +102% | Bullish | |
| $20.07 | $27.08 | $39.39 | +123% | Bullish | |
| $27.19 | $38.28 | $58.36 | +216% | Bullish | |
| $53.02 | $80.04 | $130.83 | +560% | Bullish |
Current year — the forecast is anchored to the live price, so ROI shows 0%.
| Month | Min | Avg | Max | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 2026 | $12.08 | $12.12 | $14.59 | +0.00% |
| September 2026 | $10.31 | $12.09 | $14.50 | -0.23% |
| October 2026 | $10.35 | $12.19 | $14.73 | +0.82% |
| November 2026 | $10.52 | $12.44 | $15.12 | +2.03% |
| December 2026 | $10.36 | $12.29 | $15.02 | -1.20% |
Click any year to see its month-by-month NCDL forecast. Min / Avg / Max are a bear / base / bull scenario; ROI is the projected move from the current price. Change is the month-over-month move in the average. Estimates, not guarantees.
Expect NCDL to range from $12.08 to $15.02 through 2026. The $12.12 average target implies a 0% move from current prices. Price action looks broadly range-bound.
The NCDL price prediction for 2027 points to an average of $12.69 (low $10.40, high $16.17) — a potential gain of +5% on today's $12.12. A consolidation phase looks the most probable path here.
In 2028, NCDL is projected to trade between $12.29 and $20.00, averaging $15.28 — a potential gain of +26% from today's $12.12. That is up +20% on the projected 2027 average. Momentum favours further upside here.
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp.'s 2029 outlook centres on $17.99, within a $14.25 to $24.06 range. That is up +18% on the projected 2028 average. That marks a +48% change versus current levels. Buyers look set to stay in control over this stretch.
By 2030, NCDL could reach as high as $25.66, with a base case around $18.84 and support toward $14.73 — roughly +55% from $12.12. Momentum favours further upside here.
Expect NCDL to range from $16.43 to $29.43 through 2031. The $21.27 average target implies a +76% move from current prices. That is up +13% on the projected 2030 average. Buyers look set to stay in control over this stretch.
The NCDL price prediction for 2032 points to an average of $21.94 (low $16.75, high $30.79) — a potential gain of +81% on today's $12.12. Momentum favours further upside here.
In 2033, NCDL is projected to trade between $16.61 and $31.24, averaging $21.98 — a potential gain of +81% from today's $12.12. That is up 0% on the projected 2032 average. Buyers look set to stay in control over this stretch.
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp.'s 2034 outlook centres on $24.54, within a $18.36 to $35.31 range. That is up +12% on the projected 2033 average. That marks a +102% change versus current levels. Momentum favours further upside here.
By 2035, NCDL could reach as high as $39.39, with a base case around $27.08 and support toward $20.07 — roughly +123% from $12.12. Buyers look set to stay in control over this stretch.
Expect NCDL to range from $27.19 to $58.36 through 2040. The $38.28 average target implies a +216% move from current prices. That is up +41% on the projected 2035 average. Momentum favours further upside here.
The NCDL price prediction for 2050 points to an average of $80.04 (low $53.02, high $130.83) — a potential gain of +560% on today's $12.12. Buyers look set to stay in control over this stretch.
Investing $1,000 in NCDL today (≈ 82.508251 NCDL) could be worth
$6,604.01
+$5,604.01 (+560%) by 2050 · US Dollar
Based on the average projected NCDL price of $80.04 in 2050.
Based on the base (average) forecast scenario. FX rates are indicative. Estimates only — not financial advice.
See what a past investment in NCDLwould be worth at today's price.
$1,000 invested in NCDL on Jul 31, 2025 (≈ 61.124692 NCDL) would be worth
$740.83
-$259.17 (-25.9%) today · 0.74× · US Dollar
Based on a NCDL entry price of $16.36 vs. today's $12.12.
| Invested | Entry price | Value today | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 week ago | $12.13 | $999.18 | -0.1% |
| 1 month ago | $12.68 | $955.84 | -4.4% |
| 3 months ago | $14.82 | $817.81 | -18.2% |
| 6 months ago | $13.34 | $908.55 | -9.1% |
| 1 year ago | $16.36 | $740.83 | -25.9% |
| All time (2.5y) ago | $17.85 | $678.99 | -32.1% |
Past performance from historical market data — it does not predict future results. FX rates are indicative. Not financial advice.
Enter a price to see how it sits against our NCDL forecast.
Our base-case forecast reaches $24.00 around 2034.
Implied market cap at $24.00: $1.19B
The multi year forecast depicts a bullish trajectory for NCDL, with the average price rising from 2026 onward and expanding significantly by 2040 and 2050. In 2027 the avg is $12.85 with ROI 5.4%, in 2028 the avg is $15.54 with ROI 27.5%, and in 2029 the avg is $18.32 with ROI 50.3%. By 2030 the avg reaches $19.23 with ROI 57.8%, by 2031 $21.76 (78.5%), by 2032 $22.46 (84.2%), by 2033 $22.56 (85.0%), by 2034 $25.27 (107.3%), and by 2035 $27.94 (129.2%).
The forecast continues to 2040 with an avg of $39.65 and ROI 225.3%, and reaches an avg of $83.23 by 2050 with ROI 582.8%. The sentiment is bullish in these later years, reflecting an expected upward price path, though these figures are estimates and not a guarantee. Investors should consider that outcomes depend on market conditions and other factors beyond what is shown here.
Tap a question to reveal the answer.
The 2030 forecast shows an average price of $19.23 with a ROI of 57.8% and a bullish sentiment.
Longer term forecasts indicate a bullish trajectory with rising averages and a 57.8% ROI by 2030, 225.3% by 2040, and 582.8% by 2050, but these are estimates and not guarantees.
Yes, the 2040 forecast shows an average price of $39.65 with a max of $60.46, and by 2050 the average is $83.23 with a max of $136.04, so a price around or above $40 is projected within the forecast horizon.
The current price is $12.19 and the market cap is $602.03M.
The 30 day picture shows a bear bias with RSI 40, SMA50 at $12.67, SMA200 at $13.54, a support level of $12.08 and resistance at $13.00; the 30 day range is $11.10 to $13.39.
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